Research on COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan indicates Stages, Predictions, & Recommendations

The research work, first published on May 16 2020 in the Daily Times, by Dr. Farhan Saif predicts a grim scenario of COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan. The research, based on extensive mathematical modelling of the pandemic and supporting simulations, indicates a timeline of effective measures including stringent lockdown in June and July to control the pandemic in the country.

Dr. Farhan Saif in his research explained the overall COVID-19 spread in five stages in Pakistan. In addition, he provided the growth pattern at every stage, the size of the pandemic in the next months, and the consequences of relaxing measures to limit the pandemic growth. In the work, he used real-time data of the confirmed COVID-19 patients. The study is important for decision-making and risk management to restrict the spread of the pandemic in the country.

In the research work, he provides a time-line to take appropriate steps for eradicating the COVID-19 pandemic, which is crucial in the absence of a tested medicine. “I have developed four phenomenological mathematical models including advanced Richard model and logistic growth model for epidemic control”, and “the analysis explains the important pandemic features quantitatively”, said Dr Farhan Saif.

In the research work, Dr. Saif pointed out a four times increase in the number of confirmed cases in the first week of June. He showed that a stringent lockdown in June and July shall bring the number of confirmed cases in September around three hundred fifty thousand, with less than one percent increase in new cases per day. The research warns, mismanagement, delayed actions, socio-political disharmony, however, have the tendency of increasing the total size of the pandemic in the next months. The Vice-Chancellor, Prof. Dr. Muhammad Ali, Dean of the Natural Sciences Dr Muhammad Siddiq, Dean of Biological Sciences Dr Muhammad Shahab, national and international experts lauded this timely effort relevant to the national interest by Dr Farhan Saif.

1. COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan: Stages and Recommendations’.It is available at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098004v1
2. COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan: Short Time Forecast’ published on May 16, 2020, in Daily Times. It is available at  https://dailytimes.com.pk/613069/covid-19-pandemic-in-pakistan-short-time-forecast/